Monday, April 20, 2009

Graphic illustration of the difference between the second best and the best projection

The graphic illustration of the difference:


Excerpt from:
Europe in the twilight of its demographics
Jehu Lentius – 1.12. 2008

"Now the reader should see the film ‘The Third Jihad’ (Trinity, 2008). It is bothering, no doubt, but the situation in the USA is still several dimensions better than in Europe. In an interview with Mark Steyn commenting the general conviction that the Muslims in Europe ‘are so few, only some percent of the population’, he says: “Many people think it will ‘take centuries’ for them to become majorities”, there is shown the likely demographic devel­opment of Muslims and non-Muslims calculated for France’s actual fertility rates of 1.4 vs. 3.8..." :

unreal

(Excerpt continued)
"The result may surprise the optimist: The break even point is reached before the end of our century – around 2087. And this is merely a calculation on the basis of the demographic reproduction rates, not even considering (1) the ongoing family reuniting, (2) continuous further immigration, (3) the illegal immigrants of today (suppos­edly millions), (4) continuous illegal immigration, (5) repeated amnesties for hidden immigrants (as a strong motivation for trafficking of asylum seekers), (6) the fact that Muslim fertility could be increased deliberately as conscious means of politics (already outspoken by many Muslim leaders), (7) increasing emigration of endogen­ous Europeans (which already has begun in several countries), and (8) that political decisions during their grow­ing democratic power could lower the obstacles for Muslim immigration or even facilitate it (e.g., the EU-Africa commitments of the EU-Mediterranean ‘Barcelona Process’ etc.). All these powerful factors included, a better demographic simulation than the one above could result in a much more bothering timeline..."

But I'am afraid the truth is it dismantles 40-50 p.c. quicker than even Jehu Lentius imagined or calculated 1.12.2008, especially if you look critically at the official figures as we certainly did last summer in order to come closest to the truth. Our three alternative rising curves then begin a little higher on the y-axis, because we naturally have corrected til startingpoint i.e. made a corrected realistic population balanced sheet before we projected the groups of population, but our curves do not even rise as fast as does those refered to or calculated by Jehu Lentius 1.12.2008. And even then the three rising curves intersect with the falling curve at least 50 year before:

'Some will certainly contradict us persistently and perhaps one might even point out that the first diagram concerns France, the second Denmark. But does this really matter when I tell you that France might come first.'



Now I would prefered some video - all in good time

Sonia


'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Sunday, April 19, 2009

I dansk og engelsk version : Danish official Information is not OK

i

A Danish and an English version below:

Kvinder i Østrig: Kortfattet version om østrigske kvinder og deres fødsler

Officielt melder Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, at Østrig ved udgangen af 2004 havde 16,6% ikke-østrigere i landet. Blandt disse ikke-østrigere medregnes ikke naturaliserede, der er født af indvandrere i Østrig og ej heller børnebørn af indvandrere. D.v.s. at 16,6% skal være en hel del højere, hvis vi går efter antallet af indbyggere af fremmed herkomst i Østrig. Desuden er der sket en nettotilstrømning siden 2004. Dertil kommer et forholdvis stabilt og mindre antal vestlige, der naturligvis skal fratrækkes.

Det officielle antal udenlandske statsborgere i Østrig udgjorde ved udgangen af 2004 9,6%, får vi oplyst af samme kilde.

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research oplyser endvidere, at den samlede eller den totale fertilitet blandt kvinder i Østrig er 1,4 barn, som i øvrigt har ligget vedvarende stabilt siden midten af 1980erne. Eurostat (EU's statistikenhed) oplyste i 2004 at den totale fertilitet i Østrig var 1,42. I 2005 oplyste CIA at den totale fertilitet i Østrig udgjorde 1,36. Vi ved at indvandrerkvinder fra Sydasien, Mellemøsten og Afrika føder 3-4 børn i gennemsnit pr. kvinde, d.v.s. en etnisk fertilitet på fra 3 til 4. For at den samlede fertilitet i landet kan ende på 1,4, har en vis andel fremmede kvinder bidraget med fødsler og vis andel østrigske kvinder bidraget med andre fødsler.

Da der er en sammenhæng mellem de fødende kvinders andel, befolkningsandelen, fertiliteten blandt de fødende kvinder og den samlede fertilitet, kan vi herefter cirkaberegne eller estimere fertiliteten blandt østrigske kvinder til omkring 1 barn, når vi netop får oplyst om andelen af ikke-østrigere (>16,6%) og om den samlede fertilitet i Østrig (1,4 barn).

Absolut ingen af de resultater vi når frem til på dette grundlag harmonerer på nogen måde med de officielle oplysninger vi får om danske demografiske forhold.

Oplysningerne om Østrig stammer fra Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, og de oplysninger (andre end de officielle) om danske, demografiske eller om øvrige europæiske, demografiske forhold, der stemmer overens med de netop her meddelte om østrigske forhold, stammer fra Information om Danmark.

Officielle, tilforladelige version

Udregningsprægede del af afsløringen med brug af de officielle østrigske oplysninger





Women in Austria: Brief version about Austrian women and their fertility

Max Planck Intitute for Demographic Research reports officially that Austria had 16.6% non-Austrians in the country ultimo 2004. Those non-Austrians do not include naturalized who are born by immigrants in Austria and not grandchildren of immigrants either. This implies that 16.6% has to be even higher, if we intend to count the percentage of inhabitants of foreign origine in Austria. In addition the net influx has increased the number further since 2004. A relatively stable and minor number of Westeners has to be subtracted.

The official number of foreign citizens in Austria amounted to 9.6% ultimo 2004, we are informed by the same source.

Max Planck Intitute for Demographic Research reports further that the total fertility among women is 1.4 child in Austria , and this number has been persistently stable since the midd 1980s. Eurostat (the Statical Bureau of EU) reported in 2004 that total fertility in Austria was 1.42. In 2005 CIA reported that the total fertility in Austria was 1.36. We know immigrant women from South Asia, the Middle East and Africa give birth to 3-4 children in average. The foreign ethnic fertilty is then 3 to 4 in average. For the total fertility to end up at 1.4 in the country a certain percentage of foreign women has contributed to the births, and a another certain percentage of Austrian women has to give other child-births.

As there is a coherence between the percentage of birth-giving women, percentage of population, the fertility among the birth-giving women and the total fertility, it is possible to calculate/estimate the fertility to about 1 child among Austrian women, when we have information about the percentage of non-Austrian (>16.6%) and about the total fertility in Austria (1.4 child).

Absolutely none of the results we get on this basic harmonize in any way to any degree with the official information we get about Danish Demografic relations.

The information on Austria originate from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and the information (different from the official one) about Danish Demografic relations or about other European Demografic relations that matches the present reported information about Austria, originate from Information of Denmark

Official reliable version

Calculating version with the exposure using the official Austrian information approved by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Grafic illustration of the difference between the second best and the best projection


J. E. Vig, 19. april 2009


www.lilliput-information.com





'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Women in Austria: Persistent low fertility since the midd 1980s

Women in Austria: Persistent low fertility since the midd 1980s


Demographic Research a free, expedited, online journal of peer-reviewed research and commentary in the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Konrad-Zuse Str. 1, D-18057 Rostock · GERMANY www.demographic-research.org


Dansk version


Information from: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol19/12/19-12.pdf

Austria has 8.3 mio. inhabitants ultimo 2007. As other Western European contries a substantial decrease in the number og births per Austian woman set in from the midd 1960s caused by the same reasons as for example in Denmark. After a so-called babyboom  that got its maximum in the midd 1960s after a total fertility of 2.8 in the beginning of 1960s the total fertility (the etnic Austrian and the etnic foreign fertity all together) has decreased until the midd 1980s, and thereafter it has been stable of about 1.4 children since. The continuing immigration to Austria indicates that the etnic Austrian fertility is still decreasing.

 Ultimo 2004 Austria has 788.600 (9.6%) foreign citizens. In addition 575.000 (7%) Austrian citizens born abroad. The last mentioned number rose from 5% in 2001. This means that foreign citizens, naturalized and some part of the first generation of children born abroad are counted to a percentage of 16,6% of the population ultimo 2004.

You have to add part of the second generation and the whole third generation similiar to the case in Denmark.

A doubling of the official number of foreigner in Austria to get the real number is not enough in 2009.

If we for at moment imagine that the part of the birth-giving non-Austrian women correspond to the part of the non-Austrians the total fertility of 1.4 can be calculated like this:


Number of children per non-Austrian woman: 3 or 3.5

Percentage of non-Austrian birth-giving women: 17% or 0.17

Percentage of Austrian birth-giving women: 100% - 17% = 83% or 0.83

Number of children per Austian woman: x

 

Equation (weighed average) for calculating the total fertility:

3*0,17 + x*0,83 =1,4

which gives the number of children a birth-giving Austrian woman, x: 1.07 children
If 3 is exchanged by 3.5 that is not unrealistic you get:

Number of children a birth-giving Austrian woman, x: 0.97 child

EUROSTAT reported the total fertility of Austria in 2004 to 1,42. In 2005 CIA reported the corresponding fertility to 1,36.

We have to add that non-Austrian women have a larger percentage in the birth-giving ages than the Austrians. This does not alter the fact that the fertility among Austrian women is close to 1 child.

And further more, we have to underline that the 16,6% non-Austrians inhabitants in Austria include the first generation of descendants born in Austria by immigrants and the percentage has increased substantial for the last 5 years.

 

Compare with information we have already given on the subject:

1.     lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
I know the ethnic fertility is perhaps ... woman. Here the fertility level refers to the ethnic fertility. Tabel 1: Totalfertility and calculated ethnic fertility in some European
www.lilliput-information.com/ferteu.html
 
2. 
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
Assume for a moment that the increase in fertility from 1.14 to ... immigrant-group and continue the fertility-pattern of this group for ... 1.14 is the fertility among the ethnic Danes 
www.lilliput-information.com/engeuarb.html
 
3. 
lilliput-information, Information of Denmark, immigrants in Denmark,fag
Provisional comments to newest investigation of fertility among immigrants in ... demografic parameter of fertilityamong foreign women immigrated to Denmark. Fertility is the average
www.lilliput-information.com/engfer.html
 
4. 
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
English comments to the investigation of fertility among immigrants in ... demografic parameter of fertility among foreign women immigrated to Denmark. Fertility is the average
www.lilliput-information.com/stati/hyp.html
 
5. 
information of Denmark, engsamm.html
The fertility is the number of children ... that lead to the small fertility-number 1.2-1.4 ... of foreigners, and later on the fertility has most likely fallen further. International
www.lilliput-information.com/engsamm.html
 
6. 
lilliput-information, Information om Danmark, fremmede i Danmark, fertt.html
com/italy/life_and_customs/persistent_drop_in_ fertility_res.htm : ". In no ... 1.67 if the fertility of women born abroad ... in order of Total Fertility Rate (children): Rank Country
www.lilliput-information.com/fertt.html
 
7. 
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
estimating the demografic parameter of fertility among foreign women ... calculated by U.N. Fertility is the average number ... assume the idea that fertility among the foreigners adjust
www.lilliput-information.com/fert.html
 
8. 
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
pageid=1089,47613132&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&mo=containsall&ms=fertility&saa=&p_action=SUBMIT &l=dk&co=equal&ci=,&po=equalπ=,) , estimeret til 1,28 hos CIA for 2005 (http://
www.lilliput-information.com/euarb.html
 
9. 
lilliput-information, Information om Danmark, fremmede i Danmark, forch.html
Total fertility in Denmark (a very small country of 5,447,084 inhabitants all in all) is officially reported to be 1.75 child per women. When the most foreign immigrants give 
www.lilliput-information.com/forch.html
 
10. 
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
international competition, the low western fertility, therefore the ageing of the populations, the weight of the welfare system compared with GNP, and the still increasing state-
www.lilliput-information.com/engvelg.html

 

2.       http://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/10/28/a-last-must-choose-between-good-and-bad/

3.       http://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/07/15/immigration-costs-in-sweden-amount-to-almost-297-pc-of-the-public-budget-2001/

4.       http://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/11/26/drawing-illustrates-the-way-back-to-reality-without-a-war/

5.       http://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/03/08/israelsk-forsker-kommer-til-samme-resultat/

6.       http://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/01/26/europæerne-tjente-penge-indvandrerne-føder-børn/

7.       http://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/11/17/the-number-muslims-in-europe/

8.      http://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/11/08/the-worlds-lowest-number-of-child-births-in-german-2/

9.       http://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/05/20/european-population-and-workforce/

10.   http://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/05/19/12/

 

J. E. Vig, 18. April 2009




'if your heart is filled use your brain'