Saturday, January 08, 2011


In Britain, Austria and Denmark you do not depict the reality from the official based information when you make calculations/estimations involving ethnic descendants for research on diseases or other characters known to or expected to be descendence-related.

StatistikBanken (SB; the official source of DK population statistics;

publishes immigrant statistics each year for: 1) Total DK Population, 2) Number of foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin dis-tributed on citizenship including children born abroad, 3) Number of naturalizations of the year including the children born before the naturalization. The children born to foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin in DK are counted as Danish citizens and so are the children born to naturalized citizens after the naturalization. SB also maps a number of so-called immigrants and their descendants deviating even more from a proper statistical recording in population-related research. The total common birth rate and the total common mortality rate are also published each year.

This legal place-of-birth types of classification means that it becomes increasingly difficult with time to tell apart ethnic Danish citizens from Danish citizens of foreign origin, and that we can no longer reliably identify citizens by COO, nor determine the exact number of children by citizens by COO in the official statistical bulletins. One consequence of this eth-nic mix-up is that it artificially raises estimates of ethnic Danish (sub)-fertility, and lowers the typically higher fertility of citizens of foreign origin, as will be documented below. Another consequence of the legal ethnic mix-up is that it prevents an objective analysis of the effect of immigration from various countries on Danish phenotypic and genotypic IQ. A proper demographic analysis requires information about the number of children born to foreign citizens and the number of children born to natural-ized citizens year by year.

The present analysis is actually based on official counts from SB, but uses them in a way that, at least partly, circumvents the mix-up problem. A download was first made January 1st. 1979 to determine the actual number of citizens and people of foreign origin with an address in DK and registered in the central person register.

Changes in the status for 1979 were then checked January 1st. 1980 and again each January 1st. for the follow-ing years until January 1st. 2010 with respect to 1) the number of foreign citizens the year, 2) the estimated number of children born to all foreign citizens in DK, 3) the number of naturalized individuals, and 4) the estimated number of children born to all naturalized individuals the year based on the total birth rates given by United Nations (UN: for each of the 235 COOs, and on the total common mortality rates for DK. The difference between the total published population count and the partly estimated number of citizens of foreign origin provided here is the estimated residual number of ethnic Danes.

On January 1st. 1980, the birth rates for the 235 COOs and the total common mortality rate in DK constituted the “interest rates” of increases for the status in January 1st. 1979. The number of foreign citizens and the number of natural-ized citizens in1979 were then added. This process was repeated the following year (1981) based on status per January 1st. 1980, and each ensuing year.

The model for analysis was thus to retro-correct the official population counts for 1979-2010 for each of the 235 COOs in a year-by-year fashion, by balancing the ratios of official UN birth rates (b) against the total common mortality rate for DK (d) for the year immediately before, and add the increases in the number of citizens of foreign origin (ifo) and naturalized people (inp).

This annuity model:

Status count 1979 x (1+(b-d)/1.000) + ifo + inp

was administered each 1st.January throughout the period 1979-2010.

The retro-estimated numbers for 1979-2010 were then used for projection of further population growth for the period 2011 to 2072. 1) the average of ethnic Danish net emigration of 2700 per year for the period of 1997-2007; 2) The UN-recommended birth rates for all developed countries of 9.6, reduced by 1/10 of a point from 2032 and every seventh year forward (even though we estimated it to be 9.3 at January 1st. 2010 by a weighted average based on the UN-recommended foreign birth rates; 3) The official SB registration of the population count and the total common birth- and mortality rates in DK, where the total mortality rate is the arithmetic average of the rates 2007-2009; 4) The net number new immigrants per year for each the 235 COOs, where the average is calculated from the numbers for the latest seven years.

The annuity method presented above was also applied in the projection, but the last two parts of the formula (ifo + inp) were substituted by the number of net immigration per year, that is, 17.170.

The national average IQs, provided by Lynn and Vanhanen (2006) were then weighted separately for each country each year according to its proportional numerical presence in DK, and presented as retro-estimated IQs categorized into 5 IQ bands for 1979-2010. The weighed IQs were then projected for the period 2011-2072.

The official number of citizens of foreign descendence January 1 and the official number of naturalized each year, the total number of citizens in Denmark are given by SB. The parameters are the birth rates of the foreign descendants in their origin (in the case of 14 p.c. difference) recommended by UN, and the total and separate birth- and mortality rates in Denmark build the net growth rate by births as shown above.

1979-2072: Retro-Analysis and Perspective

Other subjects on our site:

Statistical measures and tests


International Economics

Monetary Issues

New System of International Payments

Labels: , ,

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Population Account Corrections Are Needed

National Population Accounts Officially:

in Britain, Austria and Denmark do not depict the reality when you make calculations/estimations involving ethnic descendants for research on diseases or on other characters known to or expected to be descendence-related.

Naturalized and children of naturalized are counted as citizens of the nation they or their children immigrated to, and in worst cases children of foreign citizens are also counted as citizens of Britain, of Austria or of Denmark, not as foreign citizens like their parents.

Our correction:

To correct this according to the ethnic descendence we use the yearly official number of immigrants of foreign descendence, and corresponding to this number we add their expected number of births nation/area by nation/area of descendence and subtract the number of deaths in country they immigrated to. And naturalized the same. The annuity-method then used in order to retro-estimate and project a more correct number of citizens with foreign descendence.

This means that the population-account is being corrected for the period 1979-2010 by a retro-estimation for the years.

In Denmark this difference between the official and the corrected numbers amounts to 14 p.c. 1 January 2010 totally for the 235 descendences based on the birthsrates of descendence recommended by UN. And even more realistic the estimation may result in a difference of 26 p.c. Given the official counting-categories will remain unchanged this difference will increase substantially in the years to come.

The variables in use are the official number of citizens of foreign descendence 1 January and the official number of naturalized each year. The parameters are the birth rates recommended by UN and the official total mortality-rate in Denmark (in this case of 14 p.e. difference).

Our corrections into the past and the projections for the future in Excel do not yet include distribution of sex and ages.

M. Sc. (Economics)  J. E. Vig, Denmark


'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Non-Westeners consume 30-38 p.c. of the Danish Welfare-Budget

Things to have in mind as an American

Two generations of so-called welfare financed by taxes and consumed almost privately resulted in a very interesting information from the official Welfare-commission with so-called welfare-experts taught to tell what the politician don't dare to say themselves and to defend any doings (within the power of their expertice) of any government - a so-called buffer:

Non-Western immigrants in Denmark consume 3.47 times the amount of welfare in average compared with the average of the Danes (self-knowledge usually is a good thing even though we knew and also told it right from the beginning):

So, if we allow a little mathematics:

x/(1-x) * Danes' share of the population/Non-Westeners' share of the population = 3.47

where x is the percentage of Non-Westerners' consumption of the entire welfare-budget.
(we can ignore the Western immigrants, they are very few, and they mostly come here to work)

x= 30%, even though we calculate with just 11% Non-Westeners - perhaps 15% is even more realistic. We are not allowed to know the correct number, but we must pay anyway, so we get the politically correct number instead partly to make us pay.

This means that the Danish welfare-system that was bound to collapse when the hippy-generation of rulers had become pensioners and was expected to have eaten up all national resources by the time of their death will collapse in 2-4 years from now instead.

Our prognoses for the last 23 years got very close to the truth - and we can even prove it!

'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Financial crisis and value crisis - is a repited and naturally thing

Financial crisis and the value crisis -

let's have it all - is unfortunately a

repited and natural thing

First the shares were filled with hot air by companies that began to issue more and more paper, and when rates continued to rise in certain key industries, which was wildly exaggerated by the media, it was quite a fad to buy shares and offering equity securities, now savings rates at banks were of no special interest anymore. First they speculated themselves cross-eyed at an IT boom, then housing prices started to increase, the credit was even extended tgo accelerate speculation and the same were tax-funded grants to property owners via legislation in the last phase (in Denmark). Can the responsibility be placed ? Easy.

Sometimes in August 2001, we could read in the papers "So let the kids, indeed"; ‘they should invest their savings in the stock market'. 'It goes so well and we were all so rich’. And it was a lie. "More speculation, thanks" was the title of an article in Berlingske Tidende. It contained additionally only empty talk, so no information.

The dividend that companies were expected to give was no longer created by ordinary business expectations for the future, as it appeared. It was determined by the share prices determined by supply and demand for capital gain by buying and selling (stock) paper.

Companies in large numbers were recorded and publicly available on the market to get capital - they actual earned too little many of them in the normal way (hush,hush!). The IPO could obviously only be done by showing good financial results. Here you had to have a good accountant if you had troubles, and sometimes even a good relationship with his bank too.

Investment in shares that are supplied assiduously, deliver needed or much coveted capital – perhaps it actually had been impossible the earn comparing amounts by ordinary economic activities and will be even more difficult in the future with alle those demanding papers, and perhaps almost all the dividend-oriented shareholders expected what other share supplier seem to able to give. Perhaps this was a reason for a great deal to jump on the wagon, the speculator-wagon, now they got the chance.

The possibility existed now: You and several others invested well advised (effectively anyway) by banks and by the press. Others did the same, and eventually the share rates began to rise, but just because all or many small ones in market would invest. Shares had been made interesting for regular people with various games in the newspapers and everything else had been done to prepared the show.

The share price did not increase because the company showed rising earnings from - remember this! – what indeed was its appointed task to produce and sell. But rates rose and more increases came in because more share were demanded than could be supplied, it was a game, simply because purchasing power was present or there could be borrowed for the messy project too, and then because the company offered more and more papers for sale in an apparently insatiable market. It all went to the papers. But what about the ordinary activities of the business? The press shouted out daily in the recovery, recovery rates increases - in order to maintain the illusion of a boom. The reality was:

Rates and expectations for future returns in the business would soon join reality. The race was run already in 1999.
Come on, join the party before its too late, because it certainly will get too late? It was too late! When I heard the midst of the madness that phone provider for Nokia few years earlier made an annual profit, 50% higher than the year before, and simultaneously, the rate of Nokia shares – meaning the expected value of each krona invested in Nokia - fell by 50% over the same period, something had gone completely wrong, either with expectations -- which is what determines the share price - and/or the issuance of new shares and the corresponding influx of new equity, which had flowed to join the firm. There were many others.

It could also be different: rates rose, but prices were just expectations of future returns, which could not hold because the company could not meet the enormous demands which gains asked for - low or no yields calculated from the face value helped a lot on the tour further round and round on roundabout, but eventually the ordinary shareholder found out that it did not help to throw more paper into the market, perhaps the security meant something, and the role as ordinary controller investors meant something yet. In other places constructions developed that meant some key figures and some directors could steal the invested capital instead of incorporating it in the business’ activity.

The fact was that firms in large scale had been unable to manage the capital resulting from share sales in a responsible manner, without even resorting to speculation. The media scream continued daily for recovery which, when you listened, should be understand as if it simply no end would take. And it was a lie. The underlying idea could very well be getting the accidents divided/distributed to the latecomers now the madness had been running too long. How beautiful. Instead of making money from ordinary business activities one could still retrieve capital through share sale, more and more until shares were not able to make interest/yield dividends by any profitable activity - be it real production or by speculation.

So politicians opened opportunities for increased credit in houses and easier access to houses and other properties paid on credit. So almost all owners (old and new) could be involved in "making money" without doing anything. Companies and banks also jumped on the bandwagon.
Accidents that were started were again divided into many more. Then the options were exhausted, and there were no other/more speculation objects back other than pyramid schemes - that's it .... like in Albania.

I addition the last row of houses and buildings gave an extra volume of "Distorting consumption employment" for a short time to the short-sighted politicians of all kinds, as we reported, when the purchasing power was pulled out by circulation of the houses and buildings and over-indebtedness of inflated values and devalued liabilities and the difference was then consumed. Nobody had actually earned money, but the businesses adapted it as real economics so it becomes much worse afterwards when it shows it self to be funny economics.

All together money devastation and destruction of valuations to keep the speculation started with good faith in the lie - called the 'trust' from the ordinary in the media industry.

Real capital is the quintessence of those goods that produces the means of our consumption, and that maintains itself while the production is going on. Capital as a function. The permanent real capital are bind for a longer period in land, buildings and equipment, eventually in inventory. The floating capital is bound in the input of factors in the process of production while this process is running, and eventually in the inventory. The process of production will typically be repeated.

Private capital is characterized by the sum of rights that permits unearned income (often in form of interest and profit due to appreciation), where it is not possible to show any connection to productive activity.

The capital formation should be concentrated in production to satisfy the all kind of needs including the needs of meaningful activity of the labour. The natural order will always turn capital formation in this most profitable real direction among human beings in the long run. But there has never been and never will be a natural order thanks to the politicians acting within an ineffective constitutional protection of the citizens.

Only with this interference the capital formation is directed the stream into private capitalization instead or abroad. As it gets worser the politicians have to incur debt by the international bankers, because all the money issuing at home gets the prices of our goods to rise further than the competition allows. The papers (shares and bonds) in the private limited company and the state-debt-bonds make it even worser. The purchasing power has been pulled out of real production by to high wages, made too high by the too high taxes, both of them simply drains the real capital to private interest earning capital outside the production. You cannot claim that all political leaders are just as insane as all the others all the time.

An example:If you get a public subsidy covering a part of the cost in order to prompt you to renew your apartment houses but without collecting the necessary amount of money by taxation, perhaps I would ask why you did not renew the houses without the public subsidy, and while you are being very fond of the public subsidy, perhaps I will also try to get a public subsidy to renew those houses of mine. The raison to the public inter-ference is the political problems in this case following the increasing unemployment also caused by political interference and the monopoly (read close to dictatorship) of the trade unions. They are talking about renewing the towns. That is a lie. There are several other cases collected from the ideology on the life of the so-called good people that every modern politician literally has to live on. With the public subsidy the rents of the apartments increases perhaps 15-20 p.c., and the so-called value of the apartment houses increases with the capitalization of this increase (the present value of the yearly of monthly increases). When the total rent of the apartments of Copenhagen from 1914 to 1926 increased with more than 40 mill. ddk. a year the fine originators have without the society had become richer created about 500 mill.ddk more private capital, realized, when the apartment houses were sold. That is the capitalization of 40 mill. kr. a year anno 1925. A big part of this amount ran into consumption. In WW a surplus capitalization was made by the share and bond markets and by loans used to pay dividends accounted on a false basis of the values of inventory and equipment.

Read Professor Lauritz V. Birck and the Danish History Of Ship Companies 1912-1920 (and about The Crash Of Landmandsbanken, in Danish .)

Denmark was very close to the limit of bankruptcy 1923 thanks to our fine President of the centralbank Rubin and Brandes in the Department of Finances, who prefered to finance the unsatisfied needs and the unpleasantness of the war by loans, and then planned to let the small-holders’ values collapse after the war.

While they were dancing and at last were dying in paper money issued by fraud in USA the prices double more times in Denmark in the beginning of 1920s. Enormous fortunes were collected on private hands, while the state just through bonds into the market. If the state had collected a taxation on fortunes once and for all in 1919 instead of telling the people that you can finance a war with nothing, Denmark would not have had any very serious problems later on. Instead they let the inflation run directly into deflation, where all values (real capital) began to be destroyed.

You have capitalized the possibilities of the future yield and trained the propertied classes to believe that war is a good business, the best investment at all. But you forgot to give them a lecture on the uncertainty of exchange rates, of the rate of interest and of the purchasing power to unspecialized (uneducated) individuals.

The real problem is not that people do not live twice here on the Earth. Their experience is just imperfect when it comes to reality, to real life, and this fact has been used time after time.

Some will try to learn from books and studies. But is not easy even if you are pretty clever. In four years 1935-1939 the concept state debt totally lost its meaning. In 1935 it meant everything, in 1939 it meant nothing. If you asked the logical question following this nonsense in the 1969 you got an answer from the professor saying between the lines that you had not understood anything at all. You certainly have to be strong as a 19 years old country boy.

A little from accurated financial history

A few quotations: Under "Must national debt be paid back"?

" is not a natural law that national debt ever should be paid back. The state must naturally pay back a loan, when the payments have to be paid, but if it is not convinient to decrease the debt, the payback can always be done by taking another loan... It is true by both raising a loan and by paying back that the only thing that matters is in what way it effects the economic life or the welfare of the society. There can not be given grounds for paying back national debt, if the effects that the paying back has is not wanted. If there is strong demand for labour under full employment at a moment in the society, the result can only be higher wage that necessary will lead to a rise in the prices, then it is perhaps convinient to collect more tax than necessary to cover the running expenditures, that means pay back the debt, because in that way the demand for resources will decrease. Before such condition has occured or better, before you wish to reduce the demand and the income of the society or a least stop its increasing, there obviously can not be given grounds for reducing the national debt..."

"When the state (on the other hand) is paying out money, it always receives the most of the amount from one or more citizens, and directly it creates an income in this way that correspond to the expenditure reduced by the part that goes abroad. If we for a moment assume that there is balance of the payments understood, as to every increase in import there is an export increase of the same amount, there is created with every expenditure an income of the magnitude in the society".

"If the state in the same tempo, as it gives money away, collects taxes that are paid of means that the taxpayers otherwise would have given out for demand, or raises a loan that is yielded from money, that on the other hand would have been given out for labor and materials, there will obvious not neither be a smaller nor a larger total income in society, the only thing that happens is that the state now confiscates some resources that on the other hand would have been confiscated to private purposes, or would have benefited other persons than those who have the money now".

"If the state on the other hand get the concerned money by taking it from its account in the national bank and the national bank does not tightening the credit elsewhere, or the state borrow on the market of bonds and the national bank by convinient buying of bonds prevents a fall in the courses, the expenditure of the state means (not alone) that there is created directly a whole new income of the same amount, but that those, who receive the money, again give some of it to people, who once again increases the expenditures. In this way an expenditure of the state creates for example within a year an increase in the income of the society in the same year, an income that perhaps is 23 times bigger than the paid out amount of money, and because the taxes in this country with the existing laws of taxation are about 25 p.c. of the income, will such an expenditure in the concerned or the next year perhaps give the state and municipalities an increasing tax income to an amount the half or three forth of the amount that can be the basic of the new expenditures or it can be used for lowering the taxes".

Under "The balance sheet of the state":

"If you actually want to operate with an idea of balanced sheet of the state as an expression of its economic situation, it must be the ability of the citizens to pay taxes compared with the expenditures that state is planning.." (unquote of the later Professor and Rockefeller Fellow Joergen Pedersen in: 'Topical Economies Problems', 1939)

Keynesianism, that Joergen Pedersen here is making marketing for, deals with problems of the society in a very unrealistic way. They are made to formulations of problems in a mathematical language of symbols or something just as limited, there has to be cleared up (as here) a logical, coherent chain of thoughts that neither fit the problem, as it really is, nor include all those things that practically effects the solution of the problem.

For example the influence on the economy of the funds, and the inflation have an inferior place in the works of Keynes and in the works of his epigones.

The same can be said about the national debt, as it appears. The new system (at that time) that should be built up in the after war period, should give exactly free admission to incur national debt. And it certainly did.

The targets for the society are always something like employment, activity and similar. The effect of the public sector on the economy is not interesting to a Keynesian, and you will at once be in doubt if the declared targets for the economy are anything but to 'the exterior' opinion, as Keynes himself called it, before he won the Nobel Prize (se below).

The whole entrance to the Keynesian way of thinking gives evidence of a fatal need of interest of reality, for example if the assumption all together and each of them draw a true picture of the reality at all, and then this cyberspace reality that they seek to give predictions to. It will be a special problem to the Keynesian to try to cover himself up behind assumptions all the time, so what he has said, is logic, when all assumptions have been remembered. If these logical relations, scholastic rides tell anything about the effects of different political economic actions from the authorities towards some correctly described phenomena in the society do not in principle interest the Keynesian. Here he has secured his retreat. It is a very central part of the Keynesian learning to train this. I have trained myself until I could not take more lies. My upbringing simply forbad me to continue the lies.

Therefore I must say: Do not listen to the Keynesian, he will coax you to do, what he believe in, and if you do not understand, what he is telling you, he will explain to you at last by referring to your lack of education (scholastic).

Precicely the same method that what used about 100 years before when you was explain why the gold standard what mattered

I have to inform you that the Danish Joergen Pedersen, who became a Rockefeller Fellow, perhaps could have won the Nobel Prize instead of John M. Keynes. Pedersen was not very known in the Swedish Academy, and many of his earlier writings were not written in English. The practical rediscovery:

From 1994 they are talking about paying back the national debt in Denmark. But nothing of the kind happens, the debt still rises every year until recently (2006). If the national debt was beginning to be paid back the unemployment would increase, the keynesians would tell you. The unemployment in Denmark is between 500,000 and 700,000 or 17-24 p.c. of the laborforce in 1999. I have tried to give an total presentation of the unemployment-accounts-problems on: (in Danish).

Pupils who always work and always talk, tell you that the unemployment in Denmark is less than 150,000. That is the figure when you when you concentrate on the unemployed members of unemployment security system. The expelled ones do not exist. They did not in the Soviet Union and DDR either.

In 1933 the unemployment was 33 p.c. (the highest ever in Denmark) of the labor force (accounted in 1933). In September 1939 (when the World War II broke out) the unemployment increased 16,000, even if 20,000-30,000 were called to the military forces. In the years before unemployment had been reduced by public occupational work (‘New economics’, ‘Recovery’ or ‘New Deal’ made in USA), by exporting more to Germany, which were preparing for war, and by national debt, that means transforming more and more real capital to private capital.

At this time the unemployment were especially reduced by the Keynesian so-called 'kickstarting' operations. That the money was destroyed in this way did nearly nobody discover, because the war also made a new international monetary system that was based entirely on credit economy alone and and paper that is the same.

That the effect of this blind using of the theories of Keynes led to a public sector ruled by bureaucratic principles, a public sector that was a good deal larger than the things ruled by private, individual dispositions, and a colossal national debt ought to have been foreseen, but the theories did very convenient not tell this, the theories that were followed blind for 70 years. The dictatorship based on the nonsense writings by Karl Marx also lasted for 70 years. Nothing has been left to uncertainty if you look in right direction.

How should an unskilled individual know what to do? That is the reason why I got the right to vote.

A little accuracy about the between war period:

John Galbraight still maintains the German economy recovered from 1933 by civil production, and he intend to let us believe that the German method was a kind of the so-called new economics. He seems to want us to forget a lot. In 1932 4.1 mill. Germans were unemployed. Two years later the number had been reduced to 2,4 mill. In 1998 (the election year) the unemployment in Germany with nearly the same population as in 1933 was officially 4,3 mill. The SPD-politicians just before the election to the Bundestag maintained that this number was not correct. The real or the true number was about 10 mill. (the same four years later at the next election 2002). In the late 1920s and the beginning of the 1930s the motorization came as a gift from the technical knowledge, the arming had been started, and productions and development of arms had long been going on in cooperation with the Soviet Union (unofficially). A restrictive control of the currency, tax discount tickets, and especially the suspension of the trade union wage rates was the axis of the German recovery policy from 1933.

Debt, inflation, deflation and mass unemployment caused by the concentration of power and ignorance, as uninformed citizens to reign of. Business owners can be greedy, just as trade unions, but national debt, inflation, deflation and mass unemployment they are not able to do, if not the governments and their officials played with, those who prudently are living on these instruments.
Then comes the collapse:

It happens mostly once in an average lifetime (so there is not many opportunities to get used to it) and it becomes very worse this time. This is because fundamentally human attributes when the underlying morals and ethics go from the top of the flute and down, mind you.

Professor L. V. Birck wrote in 1922:

"We live in a world where 'state machine' we in fact would sit to have weakened in its foundation. It is hated by the rich and barely tolerated by the poor. In Germany and Austria are the holders of the economic power of organized society capital is thought to to destroy the so-called parliamentary democracy and the population influenced government to take power themselves. In the United States is the conflict between the political and economic temporary deferred because the political power at the last presidential election has declined in hands of a political oligarchy (my: oligarchy oligarchy means). Everywhere we find evidence of state powerlessness and the possibility that
establish the power outside the law and without oligarchy seem very distant for moment "(I quote from:" Denmark and the World Crisis ").

Professor L.V. Birck also wrote of a lifetime ago:

"Citizenship was shortsighted, it would not save the system, even sitting in, getting the amount of paper out of the world, which threatened to strangle the economic system, which involves citizenship. "
The same is happening today in a even wilder scale. What happens when government intervenes?
Nothing new under the sun.

Fraud, but not from speculators alone.
Can it be arranged so that speculation does not pay off? (English version)



'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Economics primo 2010

Economics: The Brief Truth primo 2010
The industrial production is continual decreasing, lately with a slightly lower slope, and the same is happening distinctly with the world trade in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Protectionism is very tempting to reach for, and the omnipresent cult of environment and climate freeze more than it loosen for the new perspectives including the reorganization to the international competition in the Western hemisphere.
In addition all these initiatives started to end up in the financial crisis, subprime loans and more debt, grants, easy money and easy credits, negative interests continues unaffected. Debt and insecured liabilities and continuous official expectations about higher taxes underline what certainly does not have to be done. The last-mentioned is in force in USA, Europa and Japan, Japan with 20 years recession and old- perhaps neo-keynesian errors of judgements has ended in deflation. It is not much better in Europe. No, nothing point to the right direction as matters look like right now in the beginning of 2010, regardless the share prices shortly showed small local increases over time in the beginning of 2010.
40-50 years of excesses and more than 10 years of loose monetary policy with consumption-economics and hot air bubbles first in market of shares then in market of properties are not nullified in a couple of years. The Keynesian or if you wish the Neo-keynesian treatment is still in front at the mainland of Europe:’The more the households consume the poorer they become, the more the states consume the richer we all become’. With a South- and Eastern Europe put away to Jericho under the regime of Euro, the defending rises of interest from EU, trade obstacles and other kinds of protectionism (the capital flow east- and westwards, and the inflation threatens Germany and France), starts a downward spiral leading to a collapse combined already with deflation in the one half of Europa and an dawning inflation in the other (including France and Germany).The alternative is even more issued means of money, bigger consumption, higher taxes, zero interest and more debt upon the mountain of debt, and this make everything even worse: ‘The patient should not have more of the drug that already made him ill’.The last relates naturally to the fact that some of laws of economics are almost natural laws.The ruling and media have completely missed this, because they believed on and in this world and in unresponsible of the agenda.   
The gold price approaches $1200 per zo from a price of $250 in 2005. And the gold market is not like any other bubbling market as those of shares and property, as we had to hear from the media, and not even just the breeding ground of the speculators. If this price rise of gold continues stronger inflation must follow, and the collapse we have seen until now is then just the summit. The problem is that insecurity at both the market of real production and at the market of currencies almost forces the investors to go for gold, provided the means must be easily and quickly to realized.
Remember, when the retarded dolls in the media report their advises of investment, always to do precisely the opposite. Everything has an end, and the latecomers are the majority, they are the ones to pay for the game always. Do you remember the bubble of share market created by sailable paper and of course false or no real expectations, almost in the style of Stein Bagger. Once in August 2001 you could read in the papers: ‘Let the children, indeed’. They were invited to invest the savings in the share market. ‘Everything went so well, and we became and shall become very rich’. And it was a lie. ‘More speculation, please’ was the title of an article in Berlingske Tidende. Apart from the title the article contained just empty nonsense, it was without any useful information.  
I suppose a majority at the summit expect the problems with a new and for a long time needed international monetary system solved by imposing some kind gold standard. But this has never been the solution to the selfmade problems, and a continuous rising gold price will show, where we really stand when it comes to inflation, unemployment and state debt, but the gold standard is just meaningful in an extremely expanding world economy, as under the birth of Industrialism, and it will make everything worse today, when it is artificial draged out of its historical context, because lots of people cannot look at two phenomenons occuring at the same without to imagine a connection of reason between the two.   
A real globalization of all markets naturally demand a new globalized international monetary system. The leaders of the world have to agree upon not ever in the future to be able to choose the easy way out, and at the same time impose a substantial limit the possibilities of speculation that truthfully is pure by-products of those professional-politicians-choises of the easy-money-way out. 

14 January,  M. Sc.(Economics) J. E. Vig

'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Labels: , ,

Monday, April 20, 2009

Graphic illustration of the difference between the second best and the best projection

The graphic illustration of the difference:

Excerpt from:
Europe in the twilight of its demographics
Jehu Lentius – 1.12. 2008

"Now the reader should see the film ‘The Third Jihad’ (Trinity, 2008). It is bothering, no doubt, but the situation in the USA is still several dimensions better than in Europe. In an interview with Mark Steyn commenting the general conviction that the Muslims in Europe ‘are so few, only some percent of the population’, he says: “Many people think it will ‘take centuries’ for them to become majorities”, there is shown the likely demographic devel­opment of Muslims and non-Muslims calculated for France’s actual fertility rates of 1.4 vs. 3.8..." :


(Excerpt continued)
"The result may surprise the optimist: The break even point is reached before the end of our century – around 2087. And this is merely a calculation on the basis of the demographic reproduction rates, not even considering (1) the ongoing family reuniting, (2) continuous further immigration, (3) the illegal immigrants of today (suppos­edly millions), (4) continuous illegal immigration, (5) repeated amnesties for hidden immigrants (as a strong motivation for trafficking of asylum seekers), (6) the fact that Muslim fertility could be increased deliberately as conscious means of politics (already outspoken by many Muslim leaders), (7) increasing emigration of endogen­ous Europeans (which already has begun in several countries), and (8) that political decisions during their grow­ing democratic power could lower the obstacles for Muslim immigration or even facilitate it (e.g., the EU-Africa commitments of the EU-Mediterranean ‘Barcelona Process’ etc.). All these powerful factors included, a better demographic simulation than the one above could result in a much more bothering timeline..."

But I'am afraid the truth is it dismantles 40-50 p.c. quicker than even Jehu Lentius imagined or calculated 1.12.2008, especially if you look critically at the official figures as we certainly did last summer in order to come closest to the truth. Our three alternative rising curves then begin a little higher on the y-axis, because we naturally have corrected til startingpoint i.e. made a corrected realistic population balanced sheet before we projected the groups of population, but our curves do not even rise as fast as does those refered to or calculated by Jehu Lentius 1.12.2008. And even then the three rising curves intersect with the falling curve at least 50 year before:

'Some will certainly contradict us persistently and perhaps one might even point out that the first diagram concerns France, the second Denmark. But does this really matter when I tell you that France might come first.'

Now I would prefered some video - all in good time


'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Sunday, April 19, 2009

I dansk og engelsk version : Danish official Information is not OK


A Danish and an English version below:

Kvinder i Østrig: Kortfattet version om østrigske kvinder og deres fødsler

Officielt melder Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, at Østrig ved udgangen af 2004 havde 16,6% ikke-østrigere i landet. Blandt disse ikke-østrigere medregnes ikke naturaliserede, der er født af indvandrere i Østrig og ej heller børnebørn af indvandrere. D.v.s. at 16,6% skal være en hel del højere, hvis vi går efter antallet af indbyggere af fremmed herkomst i Østrig. Desuden er der sket en nettotilstrømning siden 2004. Dertil kommer et forholdvis stabilt og mindre antal vestlige, der naturligvis skal fratrækkes.

Det officielle antal udenlandske statsborgere i Østrig udgjorde ved udgangen af 2004 9,6%, får vi oplyst af samme kilde.

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research oplyser endvidere, at den samlede eller den totale fertilitet blandt kvinder i Østrig er 1,4 barn, som i øvrigt har ligget vedvarende stabilt siden midten af 1980erne. Eurostat (EU's statistikenhed) oplyste i 2004 at den totale fertilitet i Østrig var 1,42. I 2005 oplyste CIA at den totale fertilitet i Østrig udgjorde 1,36. Vi ved at indvandrerkvinder fra Sydasien, Mellemøsten og Afrika føder 3-4 børn i gennemsnit pr. kvinde, d.v.s. en etnisk fertilitet på fra 3 til 4. For at den samlede fertilitet i landet kan ende på 1,4, har en vis andel fremmede kvinder bidraget med fødsler og vis andel østrigske kvinder bidraget med andre fødsler.

Da der er en sammenhæng mellem de fødende kvinders andel, befolkningsandelen, fertiliteten blandt de fødende kvinder og den samlede fertilitet, kan vi herefter cirkaberegne eller estimere fertiliteten blandt østrigske kvinder til omkring 1 barn, når vi netop får oplyst om andelen af ikke-østrigere (>16,6%) og om den samlede fertilitet i Østrig (1,4 barn).

Absolut ingen af de resultater vi når frem til på dette grundlag harmonerer på nogen måde med de officielle oplysninger vi får om danske demografiske forhold.

Oplysningerne om Østrig stammer fra Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, og de oplysninger (andre end de officielle) om danske, demografiske eller om øvrige europæiske, demografiske forhold, der stemmer overens med de netop her meddelte om østrigske forhold, stammer fra Information om Danmark.

Officielle, tilforladelige version

Udregningsprægede del af afsløringen med brug af de officielle østrigske oplysninger

Women in Austria: Brief version about Austrian women and their fertility

Max Planck Intitute for Demographic Research reports officially that Austria had 16.6% non-Austrians in the country ultimo 2004. Those non-Austrians do not include naturalized who are born by immigrants in Austria and not grandchildren of immigrants either. This implies that 16.6% has to be even higher, if we intend to count the percentage of inhabitants of foreign origine in Austria. In addition the net influx has increased the number further since 2004. A relatively stable and minor number of Westeners has to be subtracted.

The official number of foreign citizens in Austria amounted to 9.6% ultimo 2004, we are informed by the same source.

Max Planck Intitute for Demographic Research reports further that the total fertility among women is 1.4 child in Austria , and this number has been persistently stable since the midd 1980s. Eurostat (the Statical Bureau of EU) reported in 2004 that total fertility in Austria was 1.42. In 2005 CIA reported that the total fertility in Austria was 1.36. We know immigrant women from South Asia, the Middle East and Africa give birth to 3-4 children in average. The foreign ethnic fertilty is then 3 to 4 in average. For the total fertility to end up at 1.4 in the country a certain percentage of foreign women has contributed to the births, and a another certain percentage of Austrian women has to give other child-births.

As there is a coherence between the percentage of birth-giving women, percentage of population, the fertility among the birth-giving women and the total fertility, it is possible to calculate/estimate the fertility to about 1 child among Austrian women, when we have information about the percentage of non-Austrian (>16.6%) and about the total fertility in Austria (1.4 child).

Absolutely none of the results we get on this basic harmonize in any way to any degree with the official information we get about Danish Demografic relations.

The information on Austria originate from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and the information (different from the official one) about Danish Demografic relations or about other European Demografic relations that matches the present reported information about Austria, originate from Information of Denmark

Official reliable version

Calculating version with the exposure using the official Austrian information approved by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Grafic illustration of the difference between the second best and the best projection

J. E. Vig, 19. april 2009

'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Women in Austria: Persistent low fertility since the midd 1980s

Women in Austria: Persistent low fertility since the midd 1980s

Demographic Research a free, expedited, online journal of peer-reviewed research and commentary in the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Konrad-Zuse Str. 1, D-18057 Rostock · GERMANY

Dansk version

Information from:

Austria has 8.3 mio. inhabitants ultimo 2007. As other Western European contries a substantial decrease in the number og births per Austian woman set in from the midd 1960s caused by the same reasons as for example in Denmark. After a so-called babyboom  that got its maximum in the midd 1960s after a total fertility of 2.8 in the beginning of 1960s the total fertility (the etnic Austrian and the etnic foreign fertity all together) has decreased until the midd 1980s, and thereafter it has been stable of about 1.4 children since. The continuing immigration to Austria indicates that the etnic Austrian fertility is still decreasing.

 Ultimo 2004 Austria has 788.600 (9.6%) foreign citizens. In addition 575.000 (7%) Austrian citizens born abroad. The last mentioned number rose from 5% in 2001. This means that foreign citizens, naturalized and some part of the first generation of children born abroad are counted to a percentage of 16,6% of the population ultimo 2004.

You have to add part of the second generation and the whole third generation similiar to the case in Denmark.

A doubling of the official number of foreigner in Austria to get the real number is not enough in 2009.

If we for at moment imagine that the part of the birth-giving non-Austrian women correspond to the part of the non-Austrians the total fertility of 1.4 can be calculated like this:

Number of children per non-Austrian woman: 3 or 3.5

Percentage of non-Austrian birth-giving women: 17% or 0.17

Percentage of Austrian birth-giving women: 100% - 17% = 83% or 0.83

Number of children per Austian woman: x


Equation (weighed average) for calculating the total fertility:

3*0,17 + x*0,83 =1,4

which gives the number of children a birth-giving Austrian woman, x: 1.07 children
If 3 is exchanged by 3.5 that is not unrealistic you get:

Number of children a birth-giving Austrian woman, x: 0.97 child

EUROSTAT reported the total fertility of Austria in 2004 to 1,42. In 2005 CIA reported the corresponding fertility to 1,36.

We have to add that non-Austrian women have a larger percentage in the birth-giving ages than the Austrians. This does not alter the fact that the fertility among Austrian women is close to 1 child.

And further more, we have to underline that the 16,6% non-Austrians inhabitants in Austria include the first generation of descendants born in Austria by immigrants and the percentage has increased substantial for the last 5 years.


Compare with information we have already given on the subject:

1.     lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
I know the ethnic fertility is perhaps ... woman. Here the fertility level refers to the ethnic fertility. Tabel 1: Totalfertility and calculated ethnic fertility in some European
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
Assume for a moment that the increase in fertility from 1.14 to ... immigrant-group and continue the fertility-pattern of this group for ... 1.14 is the fertility among the ethnic Danes
lilliput-information, Information of Denmark, immigrants in Denmark,fag
Provisional comments to newest investigation of fertility among immigrants in ... demografic parameter of fertilityamong foreign women immigrated to Denmark. Fertility is the average
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
English comments to the investigation of fertility among immigrants in ... demografic parameter of fertility among foreign women immigrated to Denmark. Fertility is the average
information of Denmark, engsamm.html
The fertility is the number of children ... that lead to the small fertility-number 1.2-1.4 ... of foreigners, and later on the fertility has most likely fallen further. International
lilliput-information, Information om Danmark, fremmede i Danmark, fertt.html
com/italy/life_and_customs/persistent_drop_in_ fertility_res.htm : ". In no ... 1.67 if the fertility of women born abroad ... in order of Total Fertility Rate (children): Rank Country
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
estimating the demografic parameter of fertility among foreign women ... calculated by U.N. Fertility is the average number ... assume the idea that fertility among the foreigners adjust
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
pageid=1089,47613132&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&mo=containsall&ms=fertility&saa=&p_action=SUBMIT &l=dk&co=equal&ci=,&po=equalπ=,) , estimeret til 1,28 hos CIA for 2005 (http://
lilliput-information, Information om Danmark, fremmede i Danmark, forch.html
Total fertility in Denmark (a very small country of 5,447,084 inhabitants all in all) is officially reported to be 1.75 child per women. When the most foreign immigrants give
lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects...
international competition, the low western fertility, therefore the ageing of the populations, the weight of the welfare system compared with GNP, and the still increasing state-












J. E. Vig, 18. April 2009

'if your heart is filled use your brain'