European population and workforce

Information of Denmark

Population of European Union and the workforce

‘Half a million immigrants every year’. 15 November 2005 Christian Daily Newspaper in Denmark reported so: Spain needs 500,000-600,000 young fit immigrants a year for the next 15 years to compensate for one of the smallest numbers of births. But this cannot be the only possible solution, experts maintain.

The Spanish birth rate was reported 1,26 a woman in 2002, estimated to 1.28 by CIA for 2005, in the article mentioned above is reported 1.32, called a weak increase from the historical low birth rate 1.14 earlier. 1.32 may also refer to an expected or a provisional statement. It appears from Eurostat’s statistical presentations that the old 15 EU-countries are alleged to have a total fertility of 1.46. Among all the 25 EU-countries the average is accounted totally to 1.49, and certainly not as EU-Commissioner Vladimir Spidla was reported to have alleged on DR-Texttv 18 Mars 2005 that this figure represented the average for Ethnic European peoples all together, and the Danish Minister of Commerce and Economics also wrongly maintained in the Danish press 2 November 2004 the fertility 1.746 was the one of the Danes. In Denmark the total fertility is far higher (1.74) than the European average, Eurostat reports. The reason for this must be that the non-Western part of the population in Denmark representing an average fertility of 3,5 child a woman or more is far the highest in Europe.
As the report of Eurostat deals with the total fertility-figure of the EU-countries and the single countries, we can conclude that these fertility-figures have been accounted as a mix of the group representing high fertility, i.e. non-Western women, and of the group representing low fertility, the Western, among those the Danes. If we assume that the Danish women do not bear more children in average, but perhaps even fewer children a woman than the average of the Spanish women that is strongly influenced by Catholic traditions the following waged averages could suit the problem in Denmark[1] :

I: 1,26*(1-x) + 3,5*x = 1,74

Assume for a moment that the increase in fertility from 1.14 to 1.32 among Spanish women just happened the same way as it did in Denmark: The naturalized and the children of the naturalized are accounted as Danes, even though they belong to the immigrant-group and continue the fertility-pattern of this group for generations after the naturalization:

II: 1,14*(1-x) + 3,5*x =1,74

x is the part of the bearing who are non-Western, 1-x is the part of Western among the bearing, 1.26 or 1.14 is the fertility among the ethnic Danes and other Western immigrants in Denmark, 3.5 the expected fertility among the non-Western immigrants in Denmark, and 1.74 is the official total Danish fertility for 2005. x or the part of bearing women with a non-Western background is calculated by the solving the equations I and II to respectively about 21 p.c. and about 25 p.c. As the non-Western has an about 25 p.c. larger part in its population less than 25 years old compared with the Danes’ part less than 25 years old, and the births begin in lower ages in the non-Western group. This means that 21 and 25 p.c. of the birth-giving cannot be the typical part to characterize the population’s part. From the calculated estimates the rate of immigrants will be:

12-15 p.c. of the inhabitants in Denmark
or according to equation II
15-18 p.c. of the inhabitants of Denmark

If the increasing take in of immigrants to EU is being camouflaged just like it is in Denmark, it results in as little noise as possible and as little turmoil as possible in the ethnic originale population: According to the netsite of Eurostat almost 436,000 new citizenships were handed out to immigrants in 2002 in all EU-countries. In 2003 988,600 immigrated to EU (according to Fischer Almanach 2002-2004), and there was an excess of births of more than 300,000 children of immigrants the same year. The real increase in the number of immigrants and the increase originated from births among immigrants was calculated after the subtraction of 436,000 new citizens. This means the immigration and the number of immigrant-births actually are too small, as the 2.3 mio. lacking ethnic Europeans has in this way got somebody else to take their places and the number of places all in all has in addition to this been extended with about 1,290,000 in 2003.

Since 2002 a solution to the financial crash of welfare-systems has been needed in more EU-countries caused by the ageing of the European population, and not at least caused by the extra not less than 12-18 p.c. immigrants and their descendants originating from non-Western countries until now, immigrants with continuous weaker connections to the European labour market for the last 30 years. The published solution for Spain’s future is 500,000-600,000, now immigrants fit for work every year. In percentage terms something similar in Denmark. Spain has 40,3 mio. inhabitants. Denmark has 1/8 of Spain’s population, EU has 9.5 times larger number of inhabitants all in all. It has to be underlined that the countries Germany, France, Greece, Spain and Portugal had close to zero economic growth for last three years, and an accelerated outsourcing of jobs since millennium shift. On this background we must ask from where the jobs are expected to come, and also where to find all these immigrants fit for work and even well educated are expected to be found. In China?

Simply we can’t understand that the Danish chairman of a Danish government think tank Hans Kornoe Rasmussen and EU-Commissioner Vladimir Spidla are able to suggest a gradual 12-doubling of the immigration to Europe in the period till 2024, i.e. in 19 years. From where do these gentlemen intend to get the workforce that they maintain we need ? A non-Marxist well-documented analysis not based on profound unrealistic assumptions clearly shows that apart from mostly the tax financed and wage heavy care sector for elderly we certainly are short of jobs in the trading and production lines now and in the future, and that we are loosing in the international competition caused by wage-difference e.g. to the Far East without a corresponding tax financed welfare-system. An immigration to EU of up to10 mio. immigrants fit for work every year (to perhaps a lower wage and a lower taxation) combined with continuously about 1 mio. a year (births included) of immigrants as for the last 30 years, immigrants who definitely and easy foreseen just have contributed to further the catastrophe of the natural collapse of the welfare-system. We are told that the solution is to found here. The designed project for the future are as hopeless, even more hopeless than our experience tells us about the first immigration-wave from 1983 to 2005. The Danish Welfare Commission experiments in the same spirit with an example of calculation based on 30,000 fit and well-educated immigrants a year (excluded the burdens on the budget from their families and births among them) added to the yearly 10,000 non-Western immigrants still with very bad employment-opportunities in Denmark. If you assume equal rights is in force, I would say that family reunion and births will be made topical, also among the future fit and well-educated immigrants. This has the consequence that the future take in of immigrants must be even substantial larger according to the assumption-logical models and this immigration must even last eternal, the Welfare-Commission admits. Here we perhaps find the work of Welfare-Commission brought into agreement with work of planners in the European Union.

Just the fact that all generations of so-called descendants of immigrants until now have shown a continuous humbler connection to the group that contribute positively to the public budget in an area marked more and more by the international competition should get thinking people to understand that even a multi-doubling of the immigration can only have the purpose to get Europe on its knees. That it will happen should not be a secret. The Euro-Union is absolutely no counterbalance to the unsocial tendencies in the international competition as pointed out by incompetent analysers of the Centralistic kind that maintained this for years. On the contrary it will even strengthen these tendencies further, because it forces to adjustment of the working life to monetary commandoes. Take for example the price-rises on property made by the politicians. The only way to stop those rises was/ is to limit the European activity and employment as a necessary impact of the inflation-preventing steps that are built in by necessity in the chosen type of Euro-Union; it was designed and constructed to be exactly such a monetary arrangement. The same with the protecting duty on import of competitive products from low-wage-areas. The European Central Bank (ECB) has to follow a totally common policy in all 12 Euro-countries, later perhaps more, without having any other economic-political tools intact to turn to. If they will refer to another devastating immigration-project or to an area of deflation on its way to serious political unstability and eventually war does not matter at all. The whole wretched business was programmed in advance, and there has been warned properly of everything in good time. If not, I do not dare to characterize the political elite of Europe.

Try:
Frontiers appear from the preliminary frontier-less terror: http://www.lilliput-information.com/treji.html

M. Sc. (Economics) Joern E. Vig, Denmark
www.lilliput-information.com/indexx.htm

[1] You cannot rely on the official accounts of population among several other things because the naturalized citizens and the offspring of the naturalized are not counted in. Even the new (from 1991) categories ‘immigrants’ and ‘descendants’ do not include later generations of descendants than the first generation.


'if your heart is filled use your brain'

Welfare - a practical study

Will the welfare be rearranged?
a practical study

In all the Western welfare-democracies the debate is going on in these years: Is it possible to rearrange the welfare, and if it is possible, is it necessary then to make substantial changes or just larger or smaller adjustments? In all the countries the welfare is financed partly by the insurance principle partly tax-financed. The taxes are mainly income tax and value added taxation. In Norway 1.3 mio. live on public transfers (2005), of which 625,000 are pensioners of age (Norway’s population 4.4 mio.), in Germany the official unemployment (2005) on about 10 p.c. has to be doubled in reality, when the expelled ones without any connection to the insurance arrangement on the German labour market are counted in.
The international competition that has to be called globalisation these years pushes the development further. The developing countries, the Eastern countries and the Far East begin to supply products and labour to much lower prices respectively much lower wages compared with those of the old welfare-democracies.
The official accounted Danish working force that should include the number who supply their working force on the labour market has to be corrected, because expelled ones – over the years a very varying but always increasing group – from the group of receivers of unemployment funds, and then transferred to social security or early retirement pension without having any other handicaps than those of the community have to be counted in in working force as unemployed:


Table 1

År 2001:

Population: 5,400,000

Working force: 2,900,000 or >=3,300,000

Receivers of transfers in the working ages: 1,100,000 or <=700,000
Other receivers of transfers: 722,000

Public employed: 850,000

Employed by saleable production: 950,000 or 1.050,000


The official number in the working force has been reduced by more than 30,000 in period 2001-2005. The official number outside the working force in the working ages 15-66 years old has increased by more than 50,000 in the same period. The Danish Welfare Commission maintains that there still are 200,000 more in the working force than outside the working force. Here we have to remember that about 1 mio are 18 years old or younger. Only a part of those are included in the figure 1,1000,000 in table 1. Close on 40 p.c. or 440,000 of the 1,1000,000 on public transfers in table 1 are immigrants, descendants of immigrants, naturalized or descendants of naturalized (se below).
To this must be added the question of ageing that has resulted in a skew age distribution with an increasing part of elderly. This contributes further to the support-problem. The Danish model of welfare has ostensible been constructed to equalize the payments between yielder and receiver on lifetime-basic. This will not be possible in future with a continuous smaller working force and a continuously increased number outside the working force in the working ages. It is even further impossible to finance the existing arrangement, when the development of the population continues with:
A distribution of ages changing to a relatively larger number pensioners of age
Unsuited immigrants for the labour market
The immigrants receive 40 p. c. of social security, the former Minister Social Security maintained. May 1st 2005 Aarhus Municipality (the second largest city of Denmark), according to http://www.filtrat.dk/ : 58 p. c. of the immigrants on social security etc. are unsuited for work – the politicians shocked’.
Even though the question of ageing among Danish in a distinct minor scale is corresponded by a relatively very large part of children and young-ones among the immigrants (35 p. c. are 25 years old or younger) the central issue in a manageable future will be to finance the consumption of the 1,822,000 receivers of public transfers plus the 850,000 public employed. For now there are a small million who provides and sells the saleable production in Denmark.
In ’Yearbook about immigrants in Denmark 2001 – Balance sheet and development’, Ministry of Interior, 2001, you read officially that 53 p. c. of the male immigrants from non-Western countries are unemployed or outside the working force, for females it is 72 p. c. As the part of pensioners by age among the immigrants still is very small, the mentioned percent-figures will be found again as an absolute number in the figure 1,100,000 in table 1.
If the immigration could be corrected the ageing problem in the Danish community, where the welfare is built on equalization in life-income is making the system tremendous vulnerable, then the time factor would have caught up with the restoration, and it must be concluded that the immigration actually has increased the problem of finances substantially.
Economist, chairman of a think tank and lecturer Hans Kornoe Rasmussen has at several occasions like the EU-Commissioner Vladimir Spidla proposed a many times over increase in the immigration into EU and with it to Denmark. The Danish Welfare Commission asks, ‘Can increased immigration solve the support-problem’? Thereafter the commission supposes for the sake of argument that you could imagine 30,000 extra immigrants from more developed countries every year from now and for ever (a lot more if their families follow them) added to the present 10,000 a year from developing countries, and that those would work and pay taxes here, then the hypothetical problem of finances would have been solved for the Welfare Commission.
The Danish State-debt has almost been multiplied by 10 (accounted in constant price level) in the period 1960-2001. If the technical development – in spite of the expulsion from labour market – had succeeded to secure enough saleable production to finance a more than doubled public sector inclusive the transfers of the expelled ones in the period 1960-2001 while the ageing of population developed quickly as foreseen from the beginning of the 1970s, and in addition a huge import of immigrants, of which more than the half just contribute to the opposite of the solutions of the problems, in spite of a small share of elderly people among the immigrants, then the international competition still remains. I have to say, this project does not build on any positive knowledge in so far the agenda was as presented to the public.
Differences of structure and competition will been equalized by the market without any state latitude. The main battlefield is the labour market, the social and ecologic systems. The labour market suffers under the wage and social-cost-competition from the employees in the pure zones anywhere, and the ruling national agreements of wage rates and the least-standards of social levels will inevitably be liquidated. The market brushes them aside, the employers use their potentials of threat more and more: they have the possibility to outsource the productions to favourable wage, social, tax and ecology-cheap areas in Europe and outside Europe. About 10,000 jobs in Denmark were outsourced in 2005.
The enterprises invest if their marginal profit determine the production or determines an altered/adjusted production. The difference between the costs and expected revenue (sold quantity multiplied by the price) that these costs demands for unit by unit, is too small to employ 700,000-800,000 unemployed of about 2.9 mio. in the official Danish working force, or 3.3-3.5 mio. of the real fitted for production. If sufficient difference can be realized at lower level of production, the production is realized at that lower level including a lower level of employment, if the best alternative is even worse. It is not when you compare with Danish relations. Passive earnings outside the production or production abroad is preferred. Therefore the purchasing power is transferred to private capital outside the production or invested abroad: Capitalization: http://www.lilliput-information.com/capital.html
Enterprises do not use price margins to invest, but they use profit-yielding price/cost- margins. The problem is not one dimensional, but at least two or more even multidimensional.
The economic reality is that the producers drive the economy forward, the savings are looked at as the fuel for this process. The private and the public consumption are nothing but maintenance and rubbish.
What the consumers spend does not get the economy going, but it just maintains the apparatus, eventually put it on the back burner. The other thing has never, and will never happen. Sometimes you hear the commentators report that the expenditures spend on private consumption makes up to this or that, and it amounts to a certain percent of the entire demand. We also hear a lot of nonsense concerning the expectations of the consumers – that indicates more about their choise of TV-consumption. To give the reader the impression that the opposite actually is deciding: In 1920s the American private consumption was accounted to about 8.5 p. c. of the producers’ expenditures on factors and producer goods. This means that the total consumption on capital goods to provide, distribute and deliver goods was 12 times larger than all private consumption. Today this relation-ship has turned even more skew.
The problem can certainly not be illustrated just from above and downwards, if by any chance of solution has to be found in the near future. The saleable production has to be increased substantially, or the welfare system has to be canceled. A process that promotes the production is not started by presenting the working force for the businesses. The possibility is to make the productions in this country more competitive. The key to this is a substantial wage and tax-adjustment. The latest four years the problems have just grown bigger, a reduced working force and more to provide for in the working ages (as mentioned above). The problem has just become even more difficult to solve for the last four years. Nevertheless, The Danish Welfare Commission: ‘ it is ambitious to increase the rate employment substantially more than today. The employment is already quite high in Denmark compared with other countries.’
It has to be underlined that some adjustment of the job release scheme concerning the payments or the time or age-limits, eventually its abolition, or an adjustment the age of pension or in the social transfer payments do not solve any problem.
The problem is simply that the cost of the entire tax-financed welfare system are put in taxes and thereby into the monopolized claims of wages. The leads automatically to profitable productions, the earnings of which are the conditions for the welfare system, are made unprofitable.
USA exploited the advantages of the globalisation already in the beginning of the 1980s with outsourcing of quite a few wage-heavy productions. At the same time the Chinese was let to invest in American government bonds for the money they could not real-invest immediately. In this way a part of a safety net was constructed for US-dollar at the same time. EU has broad itself into a defensive position, and chooses protecting duty on varying types of products from low-wage-areas among other China, as the threats against the retained productions appear.
If we shall see the welfare system gradually break down caused by lacking finances, eventually with a last grasp for inflation outside the Euro-zone, and as long as EU has not stopped it, the near future will bring more and more cheap import products to our country, perhaps second-rate goods with prices better matching the social-rates of more and more who will be allocated to social-welfare-transfers to live on, while we look at a partly derailed sector of education and research, where 2 out 3 educated continuing turn their eyes toward jobs in the public sector. Exchange of goods and factors of production included knowledge with the wage-light areas will be topical for some years to come.
The experiment to attract well-qualified workers for example to the IT-line in Denmark does not seem to succeed, most because of the personal income-tax, investigations unveil. This should be proof enough, but in addition there are several more burdens on the businesses and on the every hiring.
We have to conclude, as our own educated people emigrates or turn their eyes toward jobs in the public sector, immigrants for the late 30 years have definitely turned to the knowledge-light lines, if not towards the public transfers, and our unemployed and expelled in the working ages together with about 7,000 Baltics and Poles (in 2005) cannot fit the everlasting ideology-experiment – the Danish Utopia – that reality soon shall stop the projects that certainly was not introduced caused by any popular claims what so ever, but (also) to serve to the ideological leaders themselves from the beginning.

M. Sc. (Economics) Joern E. Vig, Denmark,
November 12th 2005

'if your heart is filled use your brain'