Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Population Account Corrections Are Needed


National Population Accounts Officially:

in Britain, Austria and Denmark do not depict the reality when you make calculations/estimations involving ethnic descendants for research on diseases or on other characters known to or expected to be descendence-related.

Naturalized and children of naturalized are counted as citizens of the nation they or their children immigrated to, and in worst cases children of foreign citizens are also counted as citizens of Britain, of Austria or of Denmark, not as foreign citizens like their parents.

Our correction:

To correct this according to the ethnic descendence we use the yearly official number of immigrants of foreign descendence, and corresponding to this number we add their expected number of births nation/area by nation/area of descendence and subtract the number of deaths in country they immigrated to. And naturalized the same. The annuity-method then used in order to retro-estimate and project a more correct number of citizens with foreign descendence.

This means that the population-account is being corrected for the period 1979-2010 by a retro-estimation for the years.

In Denmark this difference between the official and the corrected numbers amounts to 14 p.c. 1 January 2010 totally for the 235 descendences based on the birthsrates of descendence recommended by UN. And even more realistic the estimation may result in a difference of 26 p.c. Given the official counting-categories will remain unchanged this difference will increase substantially in the years to come.

The variables in use are the official number of citizens of foreign descendence 1 January and the official number of naturalized each year. The parameters are the birth rates recommended by UN and the official total mortality-rate in Denmark (in this case of 14 p.e. difference).

Our corrections into the past and the projections for the future in Excel do not yet include distribution of sex and ages.

M. Sc. (Economics)  J. E. Vig, Denmark

E-mail: joern132@gmail.com

'if your heart is filled use your brain'


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