Financial crisis and value crisis - is a repited and naturally thing
Financial crisis and the value crisis -
let's have it all - is unfortunately a
repited and natural thing
First the shares were filled with hot air by companies that began to issue more and more paper, and when rates continued to rise in certain key industries, which was wildly exaggerated by the media, it was quite a fad to buy shares and offering equity securities, now savings rates at banks were of no special interest anymore. First they speculated themselves cross-eyed at an IT boom, then housing prices started to increase, the credit was even extended tgo accelerate speculation and the same were tax-funded grants to property owners via legislation in the last phase (in Denmark). Can the responsibility be placed ? Easy.
Sometimes in August 2001, we could read in the papers "So let the kids, indeed"; ‘they should invest their savings in the stock market'. 'It goes so well and we were all so rich’. And it was a lie. "More speculation, thanks" was the title of an article in Berlingske Tidende. It contained additionally only empty talk, so no information.
The dividend that companies were expected to give was no longer created by ordinary business expectations for the future, as it appeared. It was determined by the share prices determined by supply and demand for capital gain by buying and selling (stock) paper.
Companies in large numbers were recorded and publicly available on the market to get capital - they actual earned too little many of them in the normal way (hush,hush!). The IPO could obviously only be done by showing good financial results. Here you had to have a good accountant if you had troubles, and sometimes even a good relationship with his bank too.
Investment in shares that are supplied assiduously, deliver needed or much coveted capital – perhaps it actually had been impossible the earn comparing amounts by ordinary economic activities and will be even more difficult in the future with alle those demanding papers, and perhaps almost all the dividend-oriented shareholders expected what other share supplier seem to able to give. Perhaps this was a reason for a great deal to jump on the wagon, the speculator-wagon, now they got the chance.
The possibility existed now: You and several others invested well advised (effectively anyway) by banks and by the press. Others did the same, and eventually the share rates began to rise, but just because all or many small ones in market would invest. Shares had been made interesting for regular people with various games in the newspapers and everything else had been done to prepared the show.
The share price did not increase because the company showed rising earnings from - remember this! – what indeed was its appointed task to produce and sell. But rates rose and more increases came in because more share were demanded than could be supplied, it was a game, simply because purchasing power was present or there could be borrowed for the messy project too, and then because the company offered more and more papers for sale in an apparently insatiable market. It all went to the papers. But what about the ordinary activities of the business? The press shouted out daily in the recovery, recovery rates increases - in order to maintain the illusion of a boom. The reality was:
Rates and expectations for future returns in the business would soon join reality. The race was run already in 1999.
Come on, join the party before its too late, because it certainly will get too late? It was too late! When I heard the midst of the madness that phone provider for Nokia few years earlier made an annual profit, 50% higher than the year before, and simultaneously, the rate of Nokia shares – meaning the expected value of each krona invested in Nokia - fell by 50% over the same period, something had gone completely wrong, either with expectations -- which is what determines the share price - and/or the issuance of new shares and the corresponding influx of new equity, which had flowed to join the firm. There were many others.
It could also be different: rates rose, but prices were just expectations of future returns, which could not hold because the company could not meet the enormous demands which gains asked for - low or no yields calculated from the face value helped a lot on the tour further round and round on roundabout, but eventually the ordinary shareholder found out that it did not help to throw more paper into the market, perhaps the security meant something, and the role as ordinary controller investors meant something yet. In other places constructions developed that meant some key figures and some directors could steal the invested capital instead of incorporating it in the business’ activity.
The fact was that firms in large scale had been unable to manage the capital resulting from share sales in a responsible manner, without even resorting to speculation. The media scream continued daily for recovery which, when you listened, should be understand as if it simply no end would take. And it was a lie. The underlying idea could very well be getting the accidents divided/distributed to the latecomers now the madness had been running too long. How beautiful. Instead of making money from ordinary business activities one could still retrieve capital through share sale, more and more until shares were not able to make interest/yield dividends by any profitable activity - be it real production or by speculation.
So politicians opened opportunities for increased credit in houses and easier access to houses and other properties paid on credit. So almost all owners (old and new) could be involved in "making money" without doing anything. Companies and banks also jumped on the bandwagon.
Accidents that were started were again divided into many more. Then the options were exhausted, and there were no other/more speculation objects back other than pyramid schemes - that's it .... like in Albania.
I addition the last row of houses and buildings gave an extra volume of "Distorting consumption employment" for a short time to the short-sighted politicians of all kinds, as we reported, when the purchasing power was pulled out by circulation of the houses and buildings and over-indebtedness of inflated values and devalued liabilities and the difference was then consumed. Nobody had actually earned money, but the businesses adapted it as real economics so it becomes much worse afterwards when it shows it self to be funny economics.
All together money devastation and destruction of valuations to keep the speculation started with good faith in the lie - called the 'trust' from the ordinary in the media industry.
Real capital is the quintessence of those goods that produces the means of our consumption, and that maintains itself while the production is going on. Capital as a function. The permanent real capital are bind for a longer period in land, buildings and equipment, eventually in inventory. The floating capital is bound in the input of factors in the process of production while this process is running, and eventually in the inventory. The process of production will typically be repeated.
Private capital is characterized by the sum of rights that permits unearned income (often in form of interest and profit due to appreciation), where it is not possible to show any connection to productive activity.
The capital formation should be concentrated in production to satisfy the all kind of needs including the needs of meaningful activity of the labour. The natural order will always turn capital formation in this most profitable real direction among human beings in the long run. But there has never been and never will be a natural order thanks to the politicians acting within an ineffective constitutional protection of the citizens.
Only with this interference the capital formation is directed the stream into private capitalization instead or abroad. As it gets worser the politicians have to incur debt by the international bankers, because all the money issuing at home gets the prices of our goods to rise further than the competition allows. The papers (shares and bonds) in the private limited company and the state-debt-bonds make it even worser. The purchasing power has been pulled out of real production by to high wages, made too high by the too high taxes, both of them simply drains the real capital to private interest earning capital outside the production. You cannot claim that all political leaders are just as insane as all the others all the time.
An example:If you get a public subsidy covering a part of the cost in order to prompt you to renew your apartment houses but without collecting the necessary amount of money by taxation, perhaps I would ask why you did not renew the houses without the public subsidy, and while you are being very fond of the public subsidy, perhaps I will also try to get a public subsidy to renew those houses of mine. The raison to the public inter-ference is the political problems in this case following the increasing unemployment also caused by political interference and the monopoly (read close to dictatorship) of the trade unions. They are talking about renewing the towns. That is a lie. There are several other cases collected from the ideology on the life of the so-called good people that every modern politician literally has to live on. With the public subsidy the rents of the apartments increases perhaps 15-20 p.c., and the so-called value of the apartment houses increases with the capitalization of this increase (the present value of the yearly of monthly increases). When the total rent of the apartments of Copenhagen from 1914 to 1926 increased with more than 40 mill. ddk. a year the fine originators have without the society had become richer created about 500 mill.ddk more private capital, realized, when the apartment houses were sold. That is the capitalization of 40 mill. kr. a year anno 1925. A big part of this amount ran into consumption. In WW a surplus capitalization was made by the share and bond markets and by loans used to pay dividends accounted on a false basis of the values of inventory and equipment.
Read Professor Lauritz V. Birck and the Danish History Of Ship Companies 1912-1920 (and about The Crash Of Landmandsbanken, in Danish http://www.lilliput-information.com/app3.html .)
Denmark was very close to the limit of bankruptcy 1923 thanks to our fine President of the centralbank Rubin and Brandes in the Department of Finances, who prefered to finance the unsatisfied needs and the unpleasantness of the war by loans, and then planned to let the small-holders’ values collapse after the war.
While they were dancing and at last were dying in paper money issued by fraud in USA the prices double more times in Denmark in the beginning of 1920s. Enormous fortunes were collected on private hands, while the state just through bonds into the market. If the state had collected a taxation on fortunes once and for all in 1919 instead of telling the people that you can finance a war with nothing, Denmark would not have had any very serious problems later on. Instead they let the inflation run directly into deflation, where all values (real capital) began to be destroyed.
You have capitalized the possibilities of the future yield and trained the propertied classes to believe that war is a good business, the best investment at all. But you forgot to give them a lecture on the uncertainty of exchange rates, of the rate of interest and of the purchasing power to unspecialized (uneducated) individuals.
The real problem is not that people do not live twice here on the Earth. Their experience is just imperfect when it comes to reality, to real life, and this fact has been used time after time.
Some will try to learn from books and studies. But is not easy even if you are pretty clever. In four years 1935-1939 the concept state debt totally lost its meaning. In 1935 it meant everything, in 1939 it meant nothing. If you asked the logical question following this nonsense in the 1969 you got an answer from the professor saying between the lines that you had not understood anything at all. You certainly have to be strong as a 19 years old country boy.
A little from accurated financial history
A few quotations: Under "Must national debt be paid back"?
"...it is not a natural law that national debt ever should be paid back. The state must naturally pay back a loan, when the payments have to be paid, but if it is not convinient to decrease the debt, the payback can always be done by taking another loan... It is true by both raising a loan and by paying back that the only thing that matters is in what way it effects the economic life or the welfare of the society. There can not be given grounds for paying back national debt, if the effects that the paying back has is not wanted. If there is strong demand for labour under full employment at a moment in the society, the result can only be higher wage that necessary will lead to a rise in the prices, then it is perhaps convinient to collect more tax than necessary to cover the running expenditures, that means pay back the debt, because in that way the demand for resources will decrease. Before such condition has occured or better, before you wish to reduce the demand and the income of the society or a least stop its increasing, there obviously can not be given grounds for reducing the national debt..."
"When the state (on the other hand) is paying out money, it always receives the most of the amount from one or more citizens, and directly it creates an income in this way that correspond to the expenditure reduced by the part that goes abroad. If we for a moment assume that there is balance of the payments understood, as to every increase in import there is an export increase of the same amount, there is created with every expenditure an income of the magnitude in the society".
"If the state in the same tempo, as it gives money away, collects taxes that are paid of means that the taxpayers otherwise would have given out for demand, or raises a loan that is yielded from money, that on the other hand would have been given out for labor and materials, there will obvious not neither be a smaller nor a larger total income in society, the only thing that happens is that the state now confiscates some resources that on the other hand would have been confiscated to private purposes, or would have benefited other persons than those who have the money now".
"If the state on the other hand get the concerned money by taking it from its account in the national bank and the national bank does not tightening the credit elsewhere, or the state borrow on the market of bonds and the national bank by convinient buying of bonds prevents a fall in the courses, the expenditure of the state means (not alone) that there is created directly a whole new income of the same amount, but that those, who receive the money, again give some of it to people, who once again increases the expenditures. In this way an expenditure of the state creates for example within a year an increase in the income of the society in the same year, an income that perhaps is 23 times bigger than the paid out amount of money, and because the taxes in this country with the existing laws of taxation are about 25 p.c. of the income, will such an expenditure in the concerned or the next year perhaps give the state and municipalities an increasing tax income to an amount the half or three forth of the amount that can be the basic of the new expenditures or it can be used for lowering the taxes".
Under "The balance sheet of the state":
"If you actually want to operate with an idea of balanced sheet of the state as an expression of its economic situation, it must be the ability of the citizens to pay taxes compared with the expenditures that state is planning.." (unquote of the later Professor and Rockefeller Fellow Joergen Pedersen in: 'Topical Economies Problems', 1939)
Keynesianism, that Joergen Pedersen here is making marketing for, deals with problems of the society in a very unrealistic way. They are made to formulations of problems in a mathematical language of symbols or something just as limited, there has to be cleared up (as here) a logical, coherent chain of thoughts that neither fit the problem, as it really is, nor include all those things that practically effects the solution of the problem.
For example the influence on the economy of the funds, and the inflation have an inferior place in the works of Keynes and in the works of his epigones.
The same can be said about the national debt, as it appears. The new system (at that time) that should be built up in the after war period, should give exactly free admission to incur national debt. And it certainly did.
The targets for the society are always something like employment, activity and similar. The effect of the public sector on the economy is not interesting to a Keynesian, and you will at once be in doubt if the declared targets for the economy are anything but to 'the exterior' opinion, as Keynes himself called it, before he won the Nobel Prize (se below).
The whole entrance to the Keynesian way of thinking gives evidence of a fatal need of interest of reality, for example if the assumption all together and each of them draw a true picture of the reality at all, and then this cyberspace reality that they seek to give predictions to. It will be a special problem to the Keynesian to try to cover himself up behind assumptions all the time, so what he has said, is logic, when all assumptions have been remembered. If these logical relations, scholastic rides tell anything about the effects of different political economic actions from the authorities towards some correctly described phenomena in the society do not in principle interest the Keynesian. Here he has secured his retreat. It is a very central part of the Keynesian learning to train this. I have trained myself until I could not take more lies. My upbringing simply forbad me to continue the lies.
Therefore I must say: Do not listen to the Keynesian, he will coax you to do, what he believe in, and if you do not understand, what he is telling you, he will explain to you at last by referring to your lack of education (scholastic).
Precicely the same method that what used about 100 years before when you was explain why the gold standard what mattered
I have to inform you that the Danish Joergen Pedersen, who became a Rockefeller Fellow, perhaps could have won the Nobel Prize instead of John M. Keynes. Pedersen was not very known in the Swedish Academy, and many of his earlier writings were not written in English. The practical rediscovery:
From 1994 they are talking about paying back the national debt in Denmark. But nothing of the kind happens, the debt still rises every year until recently (2006). If the national debt was beginning to be paid back the unemployment would increase, the keynesians would tell you. The unemployment in Denmark is between 500,000 and 700,000 or 17-24 p.c. of the laborforce in 1999. I have tried to give an total presentation of the unemployment-accounts-problems on: http://www.lilliput-information.com/led/index.html (in Danish).
Pupils who always work and always talk, tell you that the unemployment in Denmark is less than 150,000. That is the figure when you when you concentrate on the unemployed members of unemployment security system. The expelled ones do not exist. They did not in the Soviet Union and DDR either.
In 1933 the unemployment was 33 p.c. (the highest ever in Denmark) of the labor force (accounted in 1933). In September 1939 (when the World War II broke out) the unemployment increased 16,000, even if 20,000-30,000 were called to the military forces. In the years before unemployment had been reduced by public occupational work (‘New economics’, ‘Recovery’ or ‘New Deal’ made in USA), by exporting more to Germany, which were preparing for war, and by national debt, that means transforming more and more real capital to private capital.
At this time the unemployment were especially reduced by the Keynesian so-called 'kickstarting' operations. That the money was destroyed in this way did nearly nobody discover, because the war also made a new international monetary system that was based entirely on credit economy alone and and paper that is the same.
That the effect of this blind using of the theories of Keynes led to a public sector ruled by bureaucratic principles, a public sector that was a good deal larger than the things ruled by private, individual dispositions, and a colossal national debt ought to have been foreseen, but the theories did very convenient not tell this, the theories that were followed blind for 70 years. The dictatorship based on the nonsense writings by Karl Marx also lasted for 70 years. Nothing has been left to uncertainty if you look in right direction.
How should an unskilled individual know what to do? That is the reason why I got the right to vote.
A little accuracy about the between war period:
John Galbraight still maintains the German economy recovered from 1933 by civil production, and he intend to let us believe that the German method was a kind of the so-called new economics. He seems to want us to forget a lot. In 1932 4.1 mill. Germans were unemployed. Two years later the number had been reduced to 2,4 mill. In 1998 (the election year) the unemployment in Germany with nearly the same population as in 1933 was officially 4,3 mill. The SPD-politicians just before the election to the Bundestag maintained that this number was not correct. The real or the true number was about 10 mill. (the same four years later at the next election 2002). In the late 1920s and the beginning of the 1930s the motorization came as a gift from the technical knowledge, the arming had been started, and productions and development of arms had long been going on in cooperation with the Soviet Union (unofficially). A restrictive control of the currency, tax discount tickets, and especially the suspension of the trade union wage rates was the axis of the German recovery policy from 1933.
Debt, inflation, deflation and mass unemployment caused by the concentration of power and ignorance, as uninformed citizens to reign of. Business owners can be greedy, just as trade unions, but national debt, inflation, deflation and mass unemployment they are not able to do, if not the governments and their officials played with, those who prudently are living on these instruments.
Then comes the collapse:
It happens mostly once in an average lifetime (so there is not many opportunities to get used to it) and it becomes very worse this time. This is because fundamentally human attributes when the underlying morals and ethics go from the top of the flute and down, mind you.
Professor L. V. Birck wrote in 1922:
"We live in a world where 'state machine' we in fact would sit to have weakened in its foundation. It is hated by the rich and barely tolerated by the poor. In Germany and Austria are the holders of the economic power of organized society capital is thought to to destroy the so-called parliamentary democracy and the population influenced government to take power themselves. In the United States is the conflict between the political and economic temporary deferred because the political power at the last presidential election has declined in hands of a political oligarchy (my: oligarchy oligarchy means). Everywhere we find evidence of state powerlessness and the possibility that
establish the power outside the law and without oligarchy seem very distant for moment "(I quote from:" Denmark and the World Crisis ").
Professor L.V. Birck also wrote of a lifetime ago:
"Citizenship was shortsighted, it would not save the system, even sitting in, getting the amount of paper out of the world, which threatened to strangle the economic system, which involves citizenship. "
The same is happening today in a even wilder scale. What happens when government intervenes?
Nothing new under the sun.
Fraud, but not from speculators alone.
Can it be arranged so that speculation does not pay off? (English version)
'if your heart is filled use your brain'