Friday, April 25, 2008

Number of Muslims in Germany

Number of Muslims in Germany

On the most excellent German blog Polically Incorrect run by Stefan Herren (on the portrate) we read this entry:

A small extraction:

“First of all, how many Muslims live in Germany? We don’t really know. The federal government says 3.1 to 3.4 million. This would mean about 4 percent of the total population. Similar estimates have been that until summer 2006 there were some 8 million people of immigrant background in Germany, of whom about 40% were Muslims. Yet the government admits that its figure is only an estimate, not based on verified statistics. Some observers, such as the Mideast expert Hans-Peter Raddatz, believe that the number is much higher.

A survey of the federal statistics authority in 2005, published June 2006, nearly doubled the 8 million number, to 15.3 million…”


I am afraid we have the following critical and hopefully alsom some of them improving comments to this method:

As a starting point you assume that 40 p.c. is a pretty stationary and reliable figure. We studied the phenomenon for 20 years and came to following conclusion as for the concern of matters in Denmark:

Until Schengen-extension on 21. December 2007: extension from 15 to 24 countries:

We were not concerned about immigrants’ originated from: Western Europe (without the old Eastbloc), North America, Israel, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Until ultimo 2007 the number originating from those countries/areas were almost stable in Denmark varying from 80,000 til about 100,000 for years, varying with possibilities on the Danish labour market.

We then subtracted the official number citizens from those countries in the balance sheet accounts. We always use the yearly balance sheet.

Now we bore in mind that naturalized immigrants bear children who are counted as Danish citizens without being Danes.

By assuming that naturalized muslims still gave birth to 3,3-3,5 child a woman in average – so the authorities told us in midd 1990s – with a minor notiable source of error. But their descendants give birth to even 10 p.c. more children compared with their parents (even though they are immigrants) in Copenhagen (documentated), and elsewhere.

Of the naturalized it seems for years to be more 90-97 p.c. of naturalized originating from Islamic dominated countries/areas, when we before hand had subtracted those that clearly were not from most foreign country.

We then chose to use to use 4-5 p.c. p.a. increased originating from births alone, and put this growth-rate into an annuity with the yearly annuity according to the yearly take of most foreign immigrants:

We ended at 670,000 most foreign foreigners in instead of the official number 337.243. About 500,000 of those were estimated to be muslims primo 2006.

J. E. Vig, M. Sc. (Economics) (in Danish)

'if your heart is filled use your brain'


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good, keep doing the good work!!

Blogger Joern said...

Thank You



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